METELMetabolites Towards the End of Life

The METEL study

Dying is a natural process. We want to recognise it in time.

METEL is a UK research study looking for natural changes in urine that show when a person with cancer is entering the last weeks of life, so that the care people receive at the end of life can be as good as it can be.

30+ hospitals and hospices ~1,300 people with cancer Funded by North West Cancer Research
Why this matters

We can measure almost everything in medicine, except this

We have tests that tell us when someone is pregnant, having a heart attack, or fighting an infection. Yet for the last weeks of life, one of the few things that happens to every one of us, there is no test at all. Doctors and nurses rely on experience and judgement. Often that judgement is right. Sometimes the signs are only clear in hindsight.

When dying is recognised late, people can lose precious time. Treatments that no longer help may carry on. Families may not get the chance to be together, to say what they want to say, or to plan the kind of care their person would choose.

In the 21st century, we still do not understand the biology of dying. We believe that has to change.

Our work starts from a simple idea: dying is not a single moment. It is a process, and the body changes in recognisable ways as it unfolds. If we can measure those changes, we can help teams recognise them sooner and give people the care they need, at the right time.

StableSymptoms are controlled and plans are working.
UnstableNew problems arise and plans need to change.
DeterioratingOverall health is gradually getting worse.
DyingDeath is likely within days.
Palliative care teams describe illness in these phases. The move from one to the next is often only obvious looking back. METEL is trying to find the biology underneath them.
The study

What METEL is doing

METEL stands for Metabolites Towards the End of Life. Metabolites are small molecules the body makes as it goes about its work: using energy, building and breaking down muscle and bone, processing food and medicines. Many of them end up in urine.

People with cancer who are cared for in participating hospitals and hospices across the UK are invited to give small, regular samples of urine and blood, usually once a week while they are in hospital or a hospice. Their care carries on exactly as it would have done. Taking part is entirely voluntary.

Our team has been working on this question since 2014. METEL will be the largest collection of its kind from people with cancer, giving us enough samples to find out whether the changes we have seen are real, reliable, and the same across different types of cancer.

30+

NHS hospitals and hospices across the UK taking part

~1,300

people with solid tumour cancers, the main group we will analyse

Weekly

small urine and blood samples, for as long as someone is an inpatient

Professor Chris Probert and Dr Seamus Coyle standing in the laboratory in front of shelves of stored sample boxes
Professor Chris Probert (left) and Dr Seamus Coyle in the laboratory where samples are stored before analysis. Photo: North West Cancer Research.
What we have found so far

A first signal, in lung cancer

In 2025 we published our first results. In people with lung cancer, a combination of seven urine metabolites changed in a consistent way during the last 30 days of life. The pattern was there at points right through those 30 days, not only at the very end.

The wider changes in urine also tell a story about what the body is going through as death approaches:

  • Rapid loss of muscle, especially in the last three weeks of life
  • Loss of bone
  • Eating and drinking less, including less caffeine
  • The cell's energy supply (the mitochondria) working less well
  • Possibly less building of new DNA and protein

This is an early, promising result, not a finished test. It was found in one type of cancer. METEL is testing whether the same pattern holds for people with other solid tumour cancers, in many more people and many more places.

Communications MedicineNature Portfolio · 2025 · Open access

Urinary metabolite model to predict the dying process in lung cancer patients

Coyle S, Chapman E, Hughes DM, Baker J, Slater R, Davison AS, Norman BP, Roberts I, Nwosu AC, Gallagher JA, Ranganath LR, Boyd MT, Mayland CR, Kell DB, Mason S, Ellershaw J, Probert C.

For professionals: model performance

The seven-metabolite model, measured by LC-MS metabolomics, distinguished patients in the last month of life from stable patients with a sensitivity of 64% and specificity of 95%.

We report sensitivity first because it reflects how many people in the last month of life the test would correctly identify. In end-of-life datasets, overall accuracy can look better than it is, because high specificity inflates it.

Where this is going

Towards a simple bedside test

Today, measuring these metabolites needs a specialist laboratory. Our goal is a simple urine test that can be used at the bedside, in a hospice, on a ward or at home, alongside the judgement of the people providing care. It would never replace that judgement. It would add something objective to it.

With a test like this, care teams could recognise sooner when someone is entering the last weeks of life. That means more time to talk, to plan, to stop treatments that no longer help, and to make sure people are cared for where and how they would want.

32 min Can we predict dying?
Watch the talk

Can we predict dying?

In this 32-minute talk, given at a research meeting in Sligo, at the hospital where he trained, Dr Seamus Coyle explains why recognising dying matters, what we have learned so far, and where the research is heading.

The talk was given to a healthcare audience, but it is open to anyone who would like to understand the work in more depth.

Watch on YouTube

Questions

Frequently asked questions

If you have been told about METEL, or someone close to you is taking part, we hope these answers help. Your care team is always the best person to ask.

Who is invited to take part?

Adults with cancer who are being cared for in a hospital or hospice taking part in the study may be invited, at any stage of their illness. We need people at every stage, including people who are well and expect to live for a long time, so being invited tells you nothing about how long you or your relative may have.

What does taking part involve?

A small sample of urine, and sometimes blood, usually once a week while you are staying in hospital or a hospice. The research team also notes some information from your records, such as your medicines and how you are eating. No extra visits are needed.

Will taking part change my care?

No. Your care carries on exactly as it would have done. The samples are analysed later, for research, and are not used to make any decisions about your treatment.

Do I have to take part? Can I stop?

Taking part is completely up to you. You can say no, or stop at any time, without giving a reason. It will not affect your care in any way.

What happens if I become too unwell to make decisions?

When you agree to take part, it's your own decision. If later on you become too unwell to make decisions for yourself, the law says we can't rely on that earlier agreement on its own. Instead, we would ask someone close to you, usually a family member, for their advice on whether you would want to continue. They don't have to say yes, and samples are only taken if they are comfortable each time. We explain this at the start so that nothing comes as a surprise.

Will I find out my results?

No. The samples are studied together, in large numbers, to find patterns. A single sample does not tell us anything reliable about one person, so individual results are not shared.

Why urine?

Urine is easy to collect, painless, and is often already being collected as part of care. It carries many of the small molecules that reflect what is happening throughout the body. That makes it a good choice for a future test that could be used gently, at the bedside.

Who we are

The people behind METEL

Professor Chris Probert and Dr Seamus Coyle, who founded the research together
Chris Probert and Seamus Coyle founded this research together. Photo: North West Cancer Research.
Dr Seamus Coyle

Dr Séamus Coyle

Chief Investigator · Consultant in Palliative Medicine, The Clatterbridge Cancer Centre NHS Foundation Trust · Honorary Senior Clinical Lecturer, University of Liverpool

I'm a palliative care doctor. I grew up in Sligo, in the west of Ireland, and trained at the hospital there before my career brought me to Liverpool. I also hold a PhD in cancer cell biology, and today I split my time between looking after patients and research. Every week I see how much it matters to recognise when someone is dying, and how hard that can be. METEL is my attempt to give the people who care for them something better to go on.

Professor Chris Probert

Co-founder · Professor of Gastroenterology, University of Liverpool

Chris co-founded this research with Seamus and brings expertise in measuring the small molecules the body releases in illness.

METEL is carried out with research teams at hospitals and hospices across the UK, and with the many patients and families who have generously taken part.

Contact and support

Get in touch

If you are taking part, or your relative is, the research team at your hospital or hospice is the best place to start. For general questions about the study:

The METEL research team

The Clatterbridge Cancer Centre NHS Foundation Trust

If this is a difficult time

Reading about dying can bring up difficult feelings. You don't have to manage them alone.

Marie Curie Support Line
0800 090 2309
Macmillan Support Line
0808 808 00 00
Samaritans
116 123